WSOP 2007: The Year of the Unknown

It’s all about the numbers. The Internet Gaming Act that passed in October 2006 had a dramatic impact on the online poker sites. PartyPoker is no longer serving US-based customers, and a host of other sites fled as well. How will their departure affect the number of entrants in the Main Event? Are we looking at the first “down” year in the history of the WSOP? If so, does it matter? Will the press pick up on the story and write about the “demise” of the once popular fad if we don’t surpass the 8700+ who played in the last championship event?

Here’s the deal: To comply with the law, Harrah’s and the WSOP have made it a policy not to accept third party registrations. That means that the online sites like FullTiltPoker and PokerStars will not be able to hold satellites and then force the winners to enter the tournament. Essentially, the winners of the satellites will be given a $10k voucher and are expected to enter themselves into the tournament. My guess is that about 80% of the online satellite winners getting a check for $10k will have something better to do with the money than coming to Vegas and trying to beat out 8900 players. For those who are married, I think about 99% of the winners will bail. This is bound to have a dramatic impact on the tournament unless the online sites can figure out a workaround.

My personal prediction? I’m going with 5,325, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it were significantly higher or lower than that number.

All eyes will be on Johnny Chan, Phil Hellmuth Jr, and Doyle Brunson. Will one of these legends be able to win #11? If they get to a final table, it will be very interesting to see how the competitors are able to handle the pressure. If someone ends up heads up against one of these guys with history on the line, it will be akin to the pitcher who will face Barry Bonds with the all-time home run record on the line.

Presto! That’s the number of bracelet events at the WSOP this year. Will more players face WSOP burnout? With two events or more a day for more than a month, I find that incredibly likely. Last year, after playing just 12 events, I was totally burned out and exhausted. I just can’t imagine what those who enter every single event will feel like after this year. It will be completely and utterly draining. And, there is a real chance that if you run bad during this tournament, you could end up broke. It will not be uncommon to see some of the best players in the world enter 35 tournaments without getting deep or making a final table. Who will be able to withstand that kind of crushing mental anguish and bankroll damage? Who’ll be on the rail begging?

The WSOP has signed a deal with the US Playing Card Company, home of the Bicycle and KEM card brands. They have worked hard to develop and test the “Poker Peek” style playing card. I personally think that the cards are awesome and a great addition to the game. The 30,000+ decks of KEM cards that will be in use during the tournament are a great improvement over previous years. But, the card faces are different, and it will be interesting to see if there is backlash. Several players on the WSOP Player Advisory Committee have gone on record as hating the new designs. I think the cards are great, easy to use, and good for TV. We’ll see who is right.

Jeff Madsen, the wonderkid who took home two bracelets at last year’s events along with the WSOP Player of the Year honors, is a great kid. He’s had a year to season, and his game is definitely improved. Will he be able to follow up last year’s incredible performance with another bracelet this year? He certainly thinks so. He bet me $5,000 that he’d win at least one bracelet this year. Jeff, if you want to double, triple, or quadruple your bet, just let me know – I’d go all in against you on this one. Not that you’re not a great player, but I think you have severely underestimated how difficult it will be to win another one in these incredibly large fields.

Rumors have it that there is a much stricter behavioral policy at the WSOP this year. The “F” bomb rule, ill conceived from the beginning, has been replaced with a much more generic language rule. How many sitouts will Mike Matusow have this year? Over/Under I think is about 8. Will the new harsher policies have any effect on the terrible behavior that has become commonplace at this and other tournaments? I certainly hope so. It’s about time people playing the game had some respect for their opponents.

For the first time in history, the WSOP will be allowing players to wear as many logos as they’d like. Now, we’re very used to seeing the online poker sites on shirts and hats, but will this be the year that mainstream brands infiltrate the logos? Will you see guys on the final table dressed like NASCAR drivers, with 34 patches? Who will be the most pimped-out guy at the final table? Should there be an award for he who is capable of best monetizing his appearance at the table?

An issue close to my heart, it will be very interesting to see if any of the great players still on the bracelet schneid will be able to win one. Will Gus Hansen, Erick Lindgren, Paul Wasicka, Allen Goehring, or any of the other unfortunates be able to join the exclusive club we’d all like to be a part of? Only time will tell.

This year, the starting stack for each tournament is double what it has been in years past. This will, in theory, allow the more skillful players more of a chance to rise to the top. Will this mean that we’ll see each final table stacked with pros? Only time will tell. Without a doubt, this is a huge concession made by the WSOP on behalf of the players and we should thank them at every opportunity. If you compare the final table structure of the WSOP tournaments to that of the WPT, it’s no competition. The WPT should take notice, but if history serves as an indicator, they won’t, and their final tables will continue to be complete crapshoots with average stacks of 15-20 big blinds.

No matter what happens with all the unknowns, this is bound to be the best tournament in the history of the game. I’m looking forward to seeing how things work out, and you can be sure I’ll be doing my best to win #1. I sincerely hope to see you at the final table.