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The Flying Dutchman’s ability to read his
opponents’ minds is surpassed only by his heavenly
singing voice. Just how is he able to get inside other
players’ heads? Bluff decided to climb inside
his head for a change, and found it a magical place
to be.
You have to continually analyze the information available
to you. What kind of player are you up against? Did
he come to the table to win or is he there to have fun?
Tight, cautious players, who really want to win, are
often easier to read because they are more likely to
do things ‘by the book’.
For example, I was playing in the recent Aussie Millions
Main Event. There were a lot of good players around,
so I was tightly grinding my way up, intent on reaching
the final table. We got to the last 18 and I found myself
in middle position with 10-10 in the hole, after both
blinds in front of me had folded. I raised a little
to get some action - 20,000, out of my 100,000 or so
stack - and the guy on the button, who was a rock, only
playing hands in position, called my bet. Now, because
he was flat calling, I knew he must have had a hand,
but one that wasn’t too powerful, or a drawing
hand. He wanted to see the flop because he wanted to
improve it. Maybe it was a low pair or an A-Q or A-J,
maybe even an A-K, but he didn’t dare to re-raise.
When the flop came, I checked it blind to get a position
on him. The flop was 3
5
8.
He decided to bet 20,000. I only called, because he
could have had an over-pair or a flush draw with the
A.
Another three fell on the turn, so I now had two pair,
and I bet 20,000. ‘Now,’ I think, ‘if
he has the flush draw, he will have a hard time calling.
However, if he has a ‘madehand’, like two-pair,
he will probably raise me, because he’s that kind
of player.’ Sure enough, he raised 20,000.
So, now I had eliminated the possibility that he was
still drawing for the flush with an A-J or A-K, etc.;
he certainly wasn’t behaving like he’d made
a set with fives or eights, because he was raising big
to try to get me out of the hand; he must have a pair.
But it’s very unlikely that he has A-A, K-K or
Q-Q, because he was so reluctant to raise before the
flop. He must have a higher pair than the 8 on the board,
because I might have A-8 suited. It must be a weak pair,
so I made up my mind he had 9-9. Before the last card
came down, another three, I bet 20,000 into him to make
sure he was going to pay me, and he did. And before
he showed his hand I said to him, “You have nines.”
The whole table was surprised, but it’s simple
logic.
It’s important to know exactly where you are
while your opponent is still guessing. That way, you
can make sure he’ll pay you. There are many ways
of reaching your goal, in this case: to win the hand
or to lose the minimum amount of chips. By betting,
and paying close attention to positional play, you’re
getting information that will take you a step up in
your ladder of logic. Ask yourself: ‘Why does
a man go out with an umbrella if it’s not raining?’
Marcel is the host of the International
Poker Federation, an independent body that seeks to
establish internationally standardized rules for the
game of poker in the interests of players worldwide.
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