Check....I raise
Probably 90% of players check-raise the river less than 5% of the time as a bluff or for thin value. They almost exclusively use it when they have a monster. Luckily for them, enough people are dumb enough to pay them off anyways.
You see the problem with that strategy though, right? The half-decent, observant players will not pay you off if you only checkraise the river with monsters. Furthermore, they can feel free to very thinly value bet the river against you in position.
You should be balancing your river check-raises, including monsters, strong-but-not-huge made hands, and bluffs. As always, take notice of how your opponents are reacting to river check-raises and adjust accordingly; but to start you should try to balance it so that your river check-raises are maybe 70% for value and 30% bluffs. If your opponents are calling stations, bluff less. If they are nits, bluff more.
So, what makes a spot good for a checkraise? Well, a lot of things.
First and foremost, you should have some reason to believe your opponent will bet. You can’t check-raise if he checks behind. So, players who value bet thin and/or bluff a lot of rivers make for good check-raising opportunities. Board texture is important too. You want to go for check-raises on rivers where your opponent is likely to value bet thin or bluff, such as drawy boards that have blanked off on the river. (Sometimes a lead is a better bluff than a check-raise because it’s cheaper. This depends on board texture and action, and a lot more.) You should also have reason to believe that your opponent probably doesn’t have a monster. That’s true for bluffs and for value raises (unless you have the nuts or near nuts).
So for example:
You raise UTG, he calls from the button.
Flop is 8s 7s 3h
You bet pot, he calls.
Turn 3d.
You check, he bets pot, you call.
River Qh.
This is a good spot for a check-raise, both for value and as a bluff. He likely doesn’t have a monster. He would almost always raise a flop that drawy with a set, as well as all two-pair hands. In addition, he will have missed draws on this river A TON of the time, and have to bluff if he wants to win. There is also a chance, if he is a good player, that he will make a thin value bet with something like A-8 or 9-9 or Q-J suited that picked up a pair but missed their draw. Against a good player, I would play my hand this way with holdings like A-x suited, 9-8, 7-6, 8-8, 7-7, A-A, and K-K most of the time. Hands like 8-8, 7-7, and A-x suited seem like the more obvious hands to checkraise the river with, although sometimes we’d lead turn or check-raise turn with these.
You might wonder why I’d bluff-raise hands like 9-8 or 7-6 when I might be ahead. Well, yes, he could be bluffing, and often is. The fact that he could be bluffing and we could have the best hand is important for weighing the value of a call against a raise. You have three options here: raise, call, or fold. You can compare them in any order you like. It’s easiest to compare the value of a call or raise with the value of a fold, because the value of a fold is easy. $0. You don’t win or lose any more.
To assess the value of a call, you need to look at your pot odds, and then give your best guess as to how often you have the best hand. If he bets $11k into a pot of $11k, you need to have the best hand over 1/3 of the time for a call to be better than a fold. Give an exact guess to the % of time you have the best hand, and you can get an exact dollar expectation value of a call (which you can also do with bluff-raising, and then compare the two).
To compare a bluff-raise to a fold, you have to look at the range of hands he will bet, and then what % of those will fold. If he bets $11k into a $11k pot, and I raise to $32k, I’m risking $32k to win $22k. That means he needs to fold about 60% of the hands he value bets for a bluff-raise to be more profitable than a call. So, if he is bluffing, say, 33% of the time, there’s 33% of folds right there. That leaves 67% unaccounted for, of which we need over 27% to fold (40% of the remaining hands). So, does he fold enough? There really isn’t an exact science to estimating how often your opponent will fold. It’s just that, an estimate. The reason many great players are great is because they can estimate things like this on the spot fairly accurately.
Don’t worry; I won’t leave you hanging with that copout. There are still some things we can think about. First we have to worry about the small chance he does have a monster. I don’t think that should account for more than like 5% of his overall hands given the action I described, so although it’s not insignificant, it isn’t too worrisome. If he’s much more likely to have a monster, a check-raise bluff is worse for obvious reasons. We have to then think about how legit our line looks as a bluff and as a strong hand. In the same vein of things, we have to worry about whether our opponent is smart enough, but not too smart, to fold his hand. I think most good players fall into this category. They are smart enough to realize that we check-call on the turn, which means we almost have to have a made hand. A draw would almost always bet or check-raise; and we can’t have total air because we called a big bet out of position on the turn, and then checked the river to him. So, we have to have a made hand most of the time, and we wouldn’t bluff with a made hand, would we???? So our hand doesn’t look much like a bluff.
A smart player would then think, “He could’ve hit a boat on the turn with 8-8, and tried to let me hang myself since he isn’t afraid of any draws hitting.”
The players who are too smart are the ones who realize that we realized they would think like that.
So, those are reasons why this is a good spot for a check-raise bluff.
You might wonder why I would checkraise with A-A/K-K when I might be beat. Well, against a good player, I’m not beat very often, and he can call my raise with anything he was value betting if he is heroic. Actually, if we assume for a second that we’re never beat with A-A, it’s obvious that a check-raise is the best choice. In addition to all the bluffs we now pick off, he value bets many of the hands he calls with all but the occasional 5-5ish type hand. AND, since we are mixing up our play and bluffing in this spot some, he will make some big calls with those value-betting hands. Since I think it’s so unlikely that we’re beat given the action, I consider this case (him never having us beat) close to the truth.
Hopefully you realized that because of many of the reasons above, a check-call is better than a bet and is a close 2nd to a check-raise in this case. Against some players, namely those who fold to check-raises or are more likely to have a monster here, a check-call is better than a check-raise.
I’m running out of room, so I’d like to leave you with three interesting hands that I’ve played. They all involve both river check-raises and two players who are smart enough to correctly think about river checkraise situations (if you count me as one).
Think about why these are good spots for a river check-raise (because they are), and try to see if you can put people on hands. I’ll include one player’s holding in each hand and have you think about what you would do in his spot.
100/200 vs. Brad Booth
Effective Stacks $20k
I raise to 600, he calls.
Flop K♥9♠6♠
Check, check.
Turn 4♥
Brad checks, I bet $1000 into $1200,
he calls.
River 2♠
Brad checks, I bet $3000 into $3400, he
insta-shoves for 15k more. I???
300/600 HU vs. Patrik Antonius
Effective Stacks $32k.
I raise 7-5 off-suit to $1800 in SB,
he calls.
Flop 9♦5♦9♠ ($3600)
Patrik checks, I bet $2400, Patrik calls.
Turn A♠ ($8400)
Patrik checks, I check.
River 7♥ ($8400)
Patrik checks, I bet $6600, Patrik shoves
for $20,500 more. I???
3-handed 200/400 vs. David
Benyamine
Effective Stacks $68k
I raise button 1400, DB calls in the SB
with 2♥2♠, BB folds.
Flop J♦5♥5♣ ($3200).
David checks, I bet 2400, David calls.
Turn 7♠ ($8000).
David checks, I check.
River Q♦ ($8000)
David checks, I bet $6400, David raises
to $24000.
I’ll reveal the other players’ holdings at the end of next month’s article.
