|
|
Caesars Palace Classic |
|
December 2007
|
A lot of my readers have been asking for some more strategy discussion. Ask and ye shall receive.
We were down to five players left in the Caesars Palace Classic, which
had a first place prize of $1,000,000. The players left were Scott
Fischman, Tony Cousineau, David Singer, Kido Pham, and me. Only David
was short on chips, and no one was short on final table experience.
The blinds were 8,000 and 16,000 with a 2k ante. Kido opened under the
gun to 50k, and I reraised him to 150k, on the button with A-K
off-suit. Kido used to be known for his super maniacal style. Since
then he has tightened up, but he is still a tricky aggressive player
who is capable of anything. I have a lot of respect for his new style
of play. When Kido called my reraise I was not happy, because I didn’t
think he would call there with a weak hand. Maybe he would reraise me
with one, but not call.
The flop came A-J-T with the A-J of diamonds (I did not have a
diamond). There was 334k in the pot, and I had about 650k behind. Kido
checked and the default play with my hand in that spot seemed like an
obvious bet, but while thinking about it, I asked myself: What point is
there in betting?
The flop was very likely to have hit Kido harder than me. He could
easily have made a set or two pair, or even a straight. A lot of the
time you should bet to prevent a draw from getting a free card. The
problem is that Kido is capable of check-raising hands like Q-J, Q-Q,
or even 7-5 of diamonds in that spot, along with the hands that already
have me beat – namely 10-10, J-J, K-Q, J-10, or even A-A. Unfortunately
that check-raise would put me in a very tough spot where I should
probably fold, even against someone like Kido who is capable of
anything. (He’s tricky, but not stupid.)
There are actually very few hands he could have that I really should
bet against. I could get a little value from A-Q, but the turn is
probably a better spot for that since he might check-raise A-Q on the
fl op as kind of a half semi-bluff. The same logic applies to hands
like K-J suited. The next ace I beat is A-9, and I really don’t think
he would ever call with that pre-flop. Reraise – maybe. Call? I doubt
it.
If he has an underpair, it’s still better to check. He may bluff the
turn since I showed weakness, and the value I gain from that more than
counteracts the value I lose when he hits his two-outer.
Also, by checking I give myself a chance to catch up if I am behind. If
I bet into his set, I get check-raised off the hand; but if I check, I
can hit a queen on the turn to give me the nuts.
I decided to check behind, and the turn was the eight of diamonds, a
very ugly card for me. I was surprised to see Kido check once more. I
was planning on betting the turn if he checked again, but the eight of
diamonds was not a good card for that plan. Pocket eights and flushes
now beat me, but more importantly, he is now very likely to have a big
draw. Since I had just shown weakness on the flop and the turn card was
so scary, I think Kido is just as likely to check-raise me on the turn
as he was on the flop. Even if I am still ahead, he can have all kinds
of combo draws like a pair and an open ender, or a pair and a flush
draw.
I decided the only way I could get value on the hand was from a single
bet on the river, as betting the turn would likely have me facing a
check-raise. If I knew he had a draw, that wouldn’t be a problem,
because I could just call the check-raise; but Kido could also play a
monster the same way, which means I should still probably fold to a
check raise, although that decision would be a little closer than it
was on the flop.
I checked again, and the river was the nine of diamonds, the second
worst card in the deck. He checked, and I thought about turning my hand
into a bluff, but A) it was fairly likely he made a flush, and B) Kido
is smart enough to know that I would have probably bet somewhere along
the way if I had a pair and a diamond, so it was very unlikely I would
have a flush in this spot.
At first, I was very unhappy with the way the hand went. I started off
with a huge hand, and there was now very little chance of me still
being ahead. When Kido flipped over red tens (he flopped a set and
rivered a flush), I felt like I had just given myself a second chance
in the tournament by not falling for Kido’s trap.
This hand is a good example of a situation where you should play a
strong hand passively against a tricky opponent if your hand isn’t
strong enough to be able to confidently call an all-in. Next time you
bet a hand for value against a tricky player, first ask yourself if you
are just giving your opponent a chance to take the pot from you. If the
answer is yes, maybe you should consider a check. Don’t get too carried
away with this, though, because it is crucial in poker to get value out
of your big hands when it is correct to do so.
For those of you wondering, I was not able to capitalize on the “second
chance” I had given myself in the tournament. A few hands later, David
Singer called from the small blind. I had K-7 of clubs, which is
normally strong enough to raise in that spot; but I just checked
because David had given me three walks already, and that meant he was
probably only limping very strong hands against me, maybe even one
strong enough to limp-reraise. The flop came K-Q-4 rainbow. David bet
40,000, and I called. There was about 40,000 in the pot at this point,
and David had mistaken his 10,000 chips for 5,000 chips once before, so
I wasn’t sure whether he actually meant to bet this much or not.
The turn was the three of clubs, which gave me a flush draw. David bet
90,000 (this time I knew he meant to bet that much), and I called,
planning to fold the river unimproved. The river was another three, and
David bet out 140,000. The three was a good card for me since I now
would chop with any king other than A-K, K-Q, K-4, or K-3.
Unfortunately, I called and David showed me A-K. Given how good the
turn and river cards looked for me, I don’t think there was anything I
could have done differently in that hand.
The blinds went up shortly after that, leaving me with around eleven
big blinds. The antes were pretty big, so when I found 3-3 in the
cut-off, it was a very easy decision for me to move all in.
Unfortunately, Scott Fischman woke up with J-J, and I was out of the
tournament in 5th place, which paid $163,000.
This is my 6th time cashing for over $100,000, but I have still never
cashed for more than $200,000. That has been my goal for some time now,
and I can’t help but feel that my luck keeps running out when it is the
most important. If you play a lot of tournaments, it really doesn’t
matter all that much how many times you get lucky or unlucky. However,
it is crucial to get lucky once or twice when it matters the most. A
single first place finish would more than pay for my six biggest
finishes combined. The only thing I can do is keep playing to the best
of my ability, so that’s what I am going to do.
I am in Niagara Falls right now looking at the falls from my hotel room
before I play the WPT here tomorrow. Hopefully I will have another even
bigger finish to write about.
Thanks for reading, and please check out www.ZeeJustin.com, which should be completely redesigned by the time this hits print!
-Justin Bonomo
|
|
|
|
