But it was Suited!

About a week ago, I had to tell my buddy Rob Fulop about a sick hand I played at the Commerce. I typed out the thing on my Sidekick (the Sidekick is fully budget, by the way, and I give it the big thumbs down... the next time you see me I should be onto better technology). Anyway, when I got home I read Rob’s response. It was funny and I thought the juxtaposition of my experience next to his thoughts made for something interesting... With his permission, I pass it on to you. I hope you enjoy...

And this is Rob’s reply (I hope you someday have the pleasure of meeting him, he is the best):

I mean, yeah, maybe you’ll flop a flush, right? That said, it will be tough to win a big pot if that happens, but you sure can lose one if the guy has a bigger flush.

Hey, maybe you’ll hit trip fours on the flop. That said, I’m still not sure. You win a big pot if that happens, and if the guy happens to have A-4 suited, again – yet again – you may be the payoff wizard. How about if the flop comes Q-Q-x? Well, that’s sort of like the 4-4-x flop.

So what’s a genius flop for your hand? Maybe Q-4-2 rainbow; at least that way you can get it in as a bit of a favorite over A-Q or K-K/A-A.

Maybe it comes Q-Q-4 and one guy has 4-4 and the other guy has AQ. Whatever.

Or I guess the perfect flop for you is if it comes Q♠5♥3♥ – something like that – that way you can get it all in on a coin flip against a quality hand and will be left praying that maybe you’ll win $22k on a coin flip. That’s probably your best scenario, right? I mean, the scenario that’s most likely to get you doubled up. You flop a pair/flush draw, and get it in against an overpair, and then win a coin flip?

Anyway, so you get one of the 90 percent likely garbage flops to your hand, and you decide that maybe the guy is soft, so you figure, hey, I got $400 invested, why not risk another $3,000, to pick up $1,000, right? I mean, okay, you are obviously upstream without a paddle: Sitting out of position, you have no pair, no draw, and no clue what to do if the guy gets stubborn and calls ... which he’ll probably do about half the time... sounds like a good spot for your money to me. So in it goes, phew, thank God he doesn’t embarrass you by min-raising you another $3k, after which you’d have no choice but to fold in shame.

So now here comes the turn. What do you do if it’s a club, making a three flush on the board? Do you just give it up, or do you try to represent a flush, praying that he wasn’t on a flush draw himself?

But thankfully, it’s a blank, thus sparing you the discomfort of deciding if you want to represent a flush, so now you can either keep representing that you can beat a big overpair, or you have to give it up.

Well, I guess, from your perspective, you’ve got $3,500 in the middle without any sort of chance of winning the pot unless you stick in the rest, praying that he’s not sitting there with a set himself, so you now bet $10k, figuring that if he calls once and folds twice in that spot, you’ll come out even in the long run, right?

Uptick $1,000 after three times, if he calls only once out of three times.

And, at the end of the day, I guess that’s why you make the big bucks, sir, while I struggle to beat the $.25 - $.50 online.

Call me crazy, I just don’t see the upside in calling a big raise OOP with Q♥4♥. I mean, let’s do an instant replay of the hand, on the security cam.

Phil decides to call a raise OOP with a piece of garbage hand one minute after calling the pre-flop raise. Here he is on camera sticking in $11,000 without a pair or any sort of draw whatsoever.

It occurs to me that the only thing you did right in the hand is to claim you flopped a set. Check-raising the flop on a pure bluff can only be correct if there is no reasonable draw on the board, right? Because you have no clue what to do if he calls, and the draw hits, whereas, if there was a totally unsuited flop, he really has no choice but to give you credit for a set. As it is, he can always put you on a big draw and play you accordingly. At least, that’s how it occurs to me. But wtf do I know? As I said, I can’t beat the $.25-$.50 on UB.

Then, about three days later, I played another suited-queen hand out of position. But this time connected with the flop. I ended up getting into a fix again. Re-learning the lesson about not opening the door.
Here it is...

I had Q♥9♥ and played the pot out of position. Arghghgh. By the way, maybe it is time to stop playing the suited-queen hands. 50-100 game.

At this point I do not need a crystal ball. Rod has a set. If he has 10♥J♥, then an alien has taken over his body and it is not Rod. He can’t have a pair and a flush draw cuz that is what I have. (There is only one 9♥)

First thing I am thinking is what a donk I am for Opening the Door (OPTD). But now that I had, I wondered if I was supposed to call. At the table my thinking was rather primitive, but went something like this:

Oops. Got the hand stuck in the cookie jar. Oh well, caught. I wonder if I can get the rest of his stack if I pay to peel and hit it?

The energy is sick right now. He loves his hand. He will call for sure. Is it worth it? How much does he have left? 35,200. Wow, that’s a lot. How do these kids have so much money? When I was 23 I was nearly broke. Why can’t I be 23 again? Wow, youth. Cool. Oh, yeah... 10k to call. Brutal. Hmmm... What should I do? If I call I will hit 9 out of 45 times. It costs me 10k for all that is in the pot plus his remaining stack. Juicy. If I call and miss I am only stuck 5k for the night and I think I can get it back. (Yes, this is moronic, and how you are doing overall should be irrelevant, but I can’t help but think it none the less.)

Ok, I will call. If I hit a heart, I will stack him and I expect a call. If I blank off, then I will check-fold.

At home I had the luxury of running the math. Essentially, I found yet another example of when raising a draw out of position is probably a donk play.

If you want to see the number crunching, it should be somewhere near as a side bar sort of thing. But if you are a proper degenerate you will skip over it and just get to the meat and potatoes.

When I asked Rob to check my math, his reply was priceless…

Let’s be serious, who gives a hoot about the math, right? I mean, you put your hand in the jar, just like the time before, and THIS time you got your hand slapped, right? How can you bear the thought of folding in such a situation? What could be more fun than thumbing your nose at reason, making the wrong play, hitting a perfecto turn, and busting the poor guy who leaves with nothing but a sad story of what a lucky donkey Phil Laak truly is? What better moral do you need?

In the actual hand, I called, a heart peeled. I went all in. He called, and the river blanked. Uptick 48,600.

I asked Rob what the moral of these stories were and, once again, a priceless reply…

Moral of these two stories? That’s a no-brainer. Folding is for wimps. That’s your moral. What fun is it to fold? When your hand is in the jar, and you’ve been caught, just close your eyes, stick the rest in, and prayto the Poker Goddess. If she rewards you, say “Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee” as you stack their chips. What could be more salty to your opponents than having them KNOW for a fact that you voluntarily put yourself so SERIOUSLY out on a limb, that you brazenly thumbed your nose at the math and prayed to suck out like the most hopeless donkey? It hurts even more when they KNOW that you knew you made the wrong play, making a wager that would shame even the most degenerate slot player.

Because, let’s face it, at that particular moment, your EV is better playing the most hopeless sucker bets offered in any casino. You’d be better off playing the spinning Wheel of Fortune game; certainly, your chances are better playing roulette than making the play you made.

WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

That’s your moral, sir!

Thank you Rob Fulop for putting my gambling universe into perspective, you might just be the best.