The Michael Craig Big-Game Hunter Forum

BLUFFERS and BLUFFETTES:

Sorry I've been quiet the last few days. I'm trying to finish the article for the April issue. Of course, I also have all these conflicts when it comes to posting information here: competing with myself by giving out what I'm trying to sell (to BLUFF or that BLUFF is trying to sell to you), risking the close and occasionally confidential relationships that I have with Andy Beal and several of the players, losing my front row (well, Table 3, Seat 7) seat.

But if I do post anything, I want to post it all in the same topic, and I decided on this one, Big-Game Hunter. Keep looking for other great info and discussion elsewhere and feel free to chip in with questions and opinions, but I'm going to try, for my part, IF I post something about the Andy Beal games at the Wynn, to post it here.

Maybe BLUFF will ask me to post somewhere else on the site. (I'll mention it here if I do.) Maybe they'll pay me for providing news, information, profiles, analysis, etc. (We all know how money can lower someone's reluctance.)

But I REALLY started this post to tell you one piece of news:

IT ISN'T OVER.

I'll elaborate later. It's just a question of how much later.

Michael Craig

Im hanging off the cliff with only my pinky finger holding on; Im about to fall and cant hang on much longer!!!  SAVE ME!!!!  DON"T LEAVE ME HANGING!!!!!

Best Wishes,

RTK

Andy Beal told me that the match will continue at the Wynn on Tuesday at noon. They expect to be playing $30,000-$60,000. 

Would Phil Ivey be an interesting match for Andy Beal in the opening session?

Michael Craig

You picked the right horse, Rubin, though I can't say I automatically agree with your reasoning. Ivey vs. Beal should be a great match. Andy skill, training, and preparation are unconventional and have proven successful. Ivey is regarded as the best poker player in the world, and that may be accurate. But ....

1. It doesn't appear anyone has been holding Ivey back. Somehow, he hasn't been one of the $100,000-$200,000 players against Beal in the 2004 games. He did play Andy for two days at $30,000-$60,000 back in May 2004 and they broke even. (Ivey may have come out ahead by one or two bets.) And he didn't play in the $50,000-$100,000 games of Feb. 1-5 and Feb. 12-15. He came by the room a few times. I heard several people who had shares in the group say they thought he was going to play. But he never played.

2. As I said, they have played for 2 days. Ivey didn't seem to get any read on Beal then, and Andy is probably a better player now.

3. Throw out preconceived notions. "Ivey is super aggressive." "Beal plays only heads-up." Ivey obviously can play every time of game, every type of circumstance. But Andy Beal only plays this game and this circumstance. The universe of things he has to adapt to is smaller, and he has trained himself to adapt to them. Ivey could be better than Todd Brunson, Jennifer Harman, and Ted Forrest, but can you say that their play was somehow deficient, or they exposed some kind of weakness, that couldn't be present in Ivey's play?

4. Don't overestimate the value of being on a team. Some of these people don't communicate well with each other. A lot of poker success at these levels depends on things you can't really communicate. It's not as if Todd can tell Phil, "When Andy puts his hand on his chin, he's bluffing." If Beal is giving off signals, it is not something for which you can write an instruction manual. If it was, Jennifer Harman wouldn't have lost $5 million after winning $1 million the first time.

It will be an interesting match, and hopefully a memorable one. But I'd love to get a bet down on Beal at the kind of odds implied by what many people are saying on the Internet. I'd be surprised if even the pros think Andy is more than a slight underdog.

Michael Craig